The commercial question
The question now is whether we sell it to other nurseries, or build it just for Naturally Learning. Here is what the research turned up, told straight.
Who we could sell to
27,300 nursery settings in England. This is how they are owned.
Too big, taken, or too small to bother. The band you sit in is the one that's left.
On the numbers: ~235 is the figure we could verify, by counting the sector directory ourselves. Savills puts the 5 to 19 band nearer 1,600, though we could not confirm that.
What we would be taking on
Keep it between us
Build it for Naturally Learning. No one else.
Light to run, and low risk.
Naturally Learning stays the registered person, so the compliance responsibility sits with them.
Turn it into a company
Sell it to other nursery groups.
Every setting that relies on it becomes ours to answer for.
On £12k to £25k of realistic revenue, once the overhead and our own hours are paid, what is left is pocket money. And the money is the smaller worry. Sell it to other nurseries and we vouch for their compliance, in a system built around children's safety. Insurance can cover the money if something goes wrong; it cannot lift the responsibility, and the law will not let you sign away liability for harm to a child. That is a serious thing for two people to carry, and the revenue does not make it worth it.
If we decided to chase it
5 to 10 customers
£10k to 25k a year
A paid side project
Roughly what your own network might bring on its own. A side income at most.
~20 customers
£40k to 60k a year
It pays for our time
The first line worth aiming at. It stops being a favour with costs and becomes a real side income.
~50 customers
£100k+ a year
A proper business
Worth going all in on. But it needs a bigger market than we can prove today, so treat it as the upside.
How we'd find out, before a penny goes on the company
The honest verdict
The tool is good and the gap is real. But the slice of the market we can actually reach is small, the money in it is thin, and turning it into a company is a real step up in cost, time and responsibility, more than the revenue justifies today.
So build it for Naturally Learning now. That part stands on its own, contained and low risk. Setting up a company is the decision to be careful with.
If we want to know whether there is more in it, the waitlist answers that for the price of a weekend. Aim for twenty. If the demand shows up, we cross the line then, with our eyes open. If it does not, we have lost nothing but a domain and a Saturday.
A good tool today. A business only if the market proves it.